#13 Elon's Fever Dream

Welcome to the Lone Dev Cemedella. I am your host, Mr. Brett. You can send me

anonymous feedback at bretts.app feedback. Well, I sold the majority of my

stake in Uber today because I'm just sick of it. I'm sick of the headlines and

stuff. I still believe in Uber. I still believe Uber is a great business. I

believe that they'll continue to be a good business for the foreseeable future

and given the numbers and all that, given the fundamentals, it's a good

business to be in. I mean, it's a good investment given all the

fundamentals. But I sold the majority of my position because basically, and I say

majority, I still have some exposure to Uber. But I sold the majority of it due

to, basically, it's headline risk. I'm just tired of dealing with these

headlines. And with my investment approach, I'd like to stay under the

radar as much as possible. I don't like these embattled stocks. Like, I think Uber

is sound. It should be a good investment, but the sentiment is just

freaking nuts right now. People think Tesla's RoboTaxi, completely unproven

RoboTaxi, is gonna somehow put Uber out of business. But I think that narrative

has a lot of flaws. I think Uber's business is not threatened anytime soon.

But that continues to be the narrative. These narratives can take hold and you

have no control over them. Hence the old saying, the market can... How's it go?

Bear with me here. There's an old saying that says, the market can remain

irrational longer than you can remain solvent. I think it goes something like

that. Basically, the market can be irrational for a very long time. It can

remain irrational indefinitely. So it doesn't matter if you agree with the

market or not. The market is the market and you got to play the market you're

given. So with that in mind, I want to stay under the radar. I don't want to be

on the wrong side of these narratives. So I had to take a pretty nasty

loss. Because I bought it like, I thought it was gonna break out over a hundred. So

I bought, I positioned myself accordingly. I believed in it. But it didn't. So I took

a nasty, it was like 14, almost 15 percent loss on that thing. Terrible. But the

broader markets up today. So it kind of softened the blow. Because my portfolio

is up. It's like pretty much about the same as the market today. But it was a

portfolio is nice and green today. So it kind of softened the blow. But it hurts. I

hate taking losses. But excuse me, I don't want to, I don't want to hang on.

I'm just, I have a, I don't necessarily have a solid rule in place for this. But

if something like keeps me up at night and I'm thinking about it at night and

stuff when I should be like kind of chilling. Like I've been sweating this

Uber position. I'm just tired of like fighting it and thinking about it. I just

want to let it go. There's other opportunities in the market. And it's not

only the Tesla narrative, the Tesla robo taxi narrative that we're dealing with,

which is kind of fucking ridiculous. Tesla's hitting all time highs now

because of religion, basically. Just people like believing the bullshit that

Elon throws out there every day. I mean, it is fucking bullshit. It's bullshit

with a sliver of truth. It's, it's like fundamentalism. It's belief. People just

believe in this crazy future that he's advocating for. And I love my Tesla, man.

So I don't want to be on the other side of that. It's like this techno optimism.

And I am in a way a techno optimist. I owe my, my career and my, my position in

life to technology, essentially. So I'm on that side, man. I'm on the techno

optimist side. But I think Elon's a bit of a fucking nutcase. And like he's just,

he just throws out these hyper optimistic theories or projections and

people just gobble it up. Meanwhile, Tesla has been losing money, yet the

stock has been going up like crazy. The remark, the market can remain

irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Meanwhile, Uber's fundamentals are going lower left to upper right, stock is going upper

right to lower left, or upper left to lower right, sorry, what the hell am I saying?

You know what I'm saying.

The fundamentals of Uber have been improving, yet the stock has been performing like shit,

and that's been the opposite for Tesla.

So it's like you got this whole, like, irrationality has taken hold.

And I really just don't want to fight it.

I just want to duck it, dodge it.

I don't want to be in that.

So I'm happy to just close the position, recognize that I've been wrong about this, and move

on to other things.

Like I said, I still have exposure.

I think long-term, Uber's going to be fine.

I think by the end of the year, it should be, it should break out over 100 eventually.

If there's a sane person left in this fucking world, but done fighting it, that's that.

I guess to survive as an investor, you've got to admit when you're wrong, and take the

fucking lumps.

And that's it, I just wanted to kind of vocalize why I'm getting the hell out of the ride-sharing

sector in general.

I also have some exposure to Lyft, and that's doing better than Uber today.

So I sold covered calls against my position, and it's probably going to get called away,

or maybe it won't, but yeah.

Done fighting that narrative.

The market can remain irrational, and there's also the Waymo piece I didn't even talk about.

Google's Waymo.

They think Google plus Tesla means Uber out of business, but that's just not the case.

It's just not, it's not going to happen right away.

Uber's going to be a great business for a long time before that happens.

But it doesn't matter, because they believe in Elon's fucking fever dream.

So whatever, is what it is.